Market UPDate

Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory, recovering part of Friday's sell-off. The stock markets are showing modest gains with the Dow up 20 points and the Nasdaq up 3 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point from Friday's morning rates.

This week is fairly light in terms of the number of economic releases scheduled for release. There are only three on the agenda but one of them is considered to be very important and can heavily influence the markets and mortgage pricing. In addition, there are two Treasury auctions the middle part of the week that may hurt or help boost bond prices, depending on how strong of a demand there is for the sales. Since all of the relevant data is scheduled for release Thursday and Friday, the most movement in rates will likely be the middle or latter part of the week.

Market UpDate

This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of seven relevant economic reports for the markets to digest. All of the week's data is being posted over just three days, so the first part of the week should be interesting for mortgage shoppers.

October's Existing Home Sales data will be posted late tomorrow morning. This report, along with Wednesday's New Home Sales data are the least important reports of the week. They give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but the bond market generally does not rely heavily on their results. They both are expected to show increases in sales, indicating that the housing sector may be strengthening.
The first important data comes early Tuesday morning when the first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be posted. The GDP revision is expected to show a downward revision from last month's preliminary reading of a 3.5% annual rate of expansion. Curre nt forecasts call for a reading of approximately 2.9%, meaning that there was less economic growth during the third quarter than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but it will likely take a smaller than expected reading for this report to improve mortgage rates

Market UPDate

This week brings us the release of six monthly economic reports for the markets to digest. With very important data scheduled for release three different days and relevant data four of the five days, we will likely see a fair amount of volatility in the markets and mortgage pricing this week.

The first data is one of the most important reports of the week. The Commerce Department will give us October's Retail Sales figures early tomorrow morning. This data measures consumer spending, which is considered extremely important because it makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. It is expected to show a 0.9% rise in spending, meaning consumers spent much more last month than they did in September. This would be considered negative news for bonds because large increases in spending fuels an economic recovery and raises inflation concerns in the marketplace. If tomorrow's report reveals a smaller than expected increase in spending, bonds should react favorably, pushing mortgage rates lower. If it shows a larger than expected increase, mortgage rates will likely move higher tomorrow.

The Whales Are BACK!

Every year from October to April we are blessed with thousands of humpback whales in Hawaiian waters.
This the a most fascinatiing natural phenomemon that occurs in Hawaii. They make their 3,000 mile journey from Alaska to Hawaii. The whales come to mate, give birth and raise their calves.
The Hawaiian islands is a unique location that is virtually predator fee with warm waters and a variety of ocean depts and the wonderful visibility that is believed to brings them here.


Just a few facts about the Humpback Whale;

• Adult humpbacks may get up to 45 feet and 40 tons.
• Life expectancy is 50 years.
• They do not sleep.
• They have very few predators...Humans...sharks and orcas.
• They do not feed while in Hawaii, they live off their fat built up while feeding in Alaska.
• Gestation is 11-12 months.
• Average calf is 1 to 1.5 tons and is 12 - 14 feet long at birth
• Mother humpback with teach the baby things like breaching, tail slapping and other whale behavior while in Hawaiian waters.
• Calf will gain about 100 pounds and one inch per day.
• The humpback whale was once near extinction due to hunting. They are still on the endangered list but their number are growing.

Maui Whale - Free videos are just a click away

Roxy's Weekly Mortgage UPdate

This week brings us the release of five economic reports for the markets to digest. Only one of these reports is considered to be highly important to mortgage rates, but this by no means leads me to believe we will have an uneventful week. This will be an extremely busy week for corporate earnings, which usually translates into stock volatility. The lack of important economic data on this week's calendar makes it more likely that any significant swings in stock prices will influence bond trading and mortgage rates.
September's Producer Price Index (P PI) is the first report of the week and the most important of the five. This index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. Analysts are expecting to see no change in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. A larger than expected increase could fuel inflation concerns in the bond market and push mortgage rates higher. However, weaker than expected readings should lead to lower rates Tuesday.

September's Housing Starts is the second report of the day, but is one of the week's least important pieces of data. It gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but usually is not a mover of mortgage rates. It is expected to show an increase in starts of new homes last month. If it varies greatly from forecasts, we could see the bond market have some reaction to the news, but probably not enough to cause much movement in rates. The PPI report should be much more of an influence on mortgage rates Tuesday than this housing report will

Roxy's Weekly Mortgage Update

Mortgage rates spent the first part of last week sliding lower again, but rates began creeping upward as the week progressed. With limited economic data to drive bond markets, much of the movement came
from money flowing into stock markets, which rallied as the week progressed.
Mortgage rates will likely start the week with some upward pressure hanging on from last week, but with a week full of economic data and some potential news from Washington, we could see rates go
either way next week. Both Retail Sales and Industrial Production data are due next week. With
consumers still struggling, a near unchanged sales reading might help propel rates higher, as would a
higher-than-expected IP reading. However, we’ve got the Consumer Price Index due with
expectations of continuing low inflationary pressures. If the CPI remains unchanged, and Congress
begins to move in earnest to extend or expand tax credits for homebuyers, we’re likely to see
mortgage rates return to the slow march downward, similar to the trend of last few months.

Roxy's Weekly Mortgage UpDate

Mortgage rates remained flat again this week as traders seemed to continue to hold a balanced view of the improving economy, muted inflationary pressures, and government support for financial markets.
We did see a few more signs of improving conditions, and also reminders that we are still not on solid
footing yet. The Fed also meet last week, leaving rates unchanged as expected. As the economy
improves, it is very likely that the Fed will let various support programs expire, such as the $300
billion program of buying Treasury debt that expires in four weeks.
This is a jam-packed week of economic data for markets to digest. The reports include the final
reading for last quarter’s GDP, the ISM Manufacturing Index, Consumer Confidence, and
September’s employment report. After the Fed’s meeting last week, if the data comes in revealing
growing economic strength, it would not be surprising to see mortgage rates beginning to trend slowly
upward. However, if unemployment jumps to 10.0%, we’ll see rates stay low.

Aloha Friday.... TGIF

Another week bites the dust.... I do love Friday's coming in second to Saturday! The end of summer brings our first big swell to Oahu's North Shore. Surf's UP, 18 to 20 footers this weekend could bring out all the locals and tourists and that means a busy, bustling NS, both Pipeline and Sunset beaches will be a sight to see for all. STAY out of the water if you’re NOT a very experienced surfer and even if you surf be careful.

More people are killed in high surf in Hawaii than any other place in the world. Don't go down to the water's edge YOU will get pounded! Sit back high on the beach and watch the beauty. I like to watch those crazy experienced surfer's tear it up! Using Jet Ski's to sling them onto those fast..BIG waves... incredible action!

Have a great weekend and stay safe.... Mahalo

What's Going On In The Market

I found this article to be of interest and thought you might too;


by Lonnie Adams, Director of Capital Markets

Both bond and equity markets are flat this morning, just waiting to hear what the Fed prognosticators have to tell us. The Fed announcement will occur around 11:15, AM, Pacific time; however, between now and then the U.S. Treasury will auction $40 billion of 5 year notes. While the Fed is expected to state economic prospects have brightened, the Fed will also tell the markets they remain committed to providing a helping hand to ensure a lasting recovery. Regardless of your politics, one thing that will definitely hamper any economic recovery is the expiration of the Bush tax cuts---set to expire in 2010. The current administration and Congress have already made it clear they will not extend these cuts. So, when you think only the wealthy will experience a tax increase next year, lets review what will be happening to tax rates. The 10% bracket will increase back to 15%...a tax burden hike of 50%! The 25% bracket will increase back to 28%...a tax burden hike of 12%. The 28% bracket will increase back to 31%...a tax burden hike of 10.7%. The 33% bracket will increase back to 36%...a tax burden hike of 9.1%. The 35% bracket will increase back to 39.6%...a tax burden hike of 13.1%. Keep in mind this does not include any tax increases required to pay for the new healthcare program. It is hard to imagine an economic recovery if we all have less in our paychecks.

Roxy's Weekly Mortgage UpDate

The “recession is very likely over,” announced Fed Chair Ben Bernanke last week.
While this may be technically true, markets did not react with the usual leap upward in interest rates.
Instead, mortgage rates continued their very slow downward decent. While we may finally be in a period of economic growth, we may be far from a reasonable economic recovery. As long as unemployment remains elevated, we may see inflationary pressures held in check. This combined with a slow unwinding of
federal intervention in financial markets may lead to a lengthy period of low rates. However, markets
may react with rapidly increasing rates if significantly better-than-expected data is released, or if
rumors of termination of certain government programs circulate.
The direction that mortgage rates move this week is very likely to be dependent on the Fed’s policy
announcement on Wednesday. If the Fed issues any surprises for the market, such as the termination
of any support programs, we could see rates rise. Otherwise, they should stay fairly level.